Michigan Economy per Dana Johnson, Chief Economist, Comerica Bank: Still Trending Lower

September 8th, 2008 Kathy Toth Posted in Ann Arbor Market Statistics No Comments »

Well, I am tired of the trend too, but being an ostrich does not work either.   Some sellers must look at the data to make informed decisions about their future.  Do they hold or sell now?  How long before we bottom? When do we recover?  Should we take the job offer out of state and how much money do we have to bring to the table to sell the house to move out of state?  These are questions I hear weekly.

So the full report is here for your review.  This is one of the tools and data sets I evaluate and share with clients.

 


MICHIGAN ECONOMY TRENDING RAPIDLY LOWER AT MIDYEAR REPORTS COMERICA BANK’S MICHIGAN BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX

Dallas/September 2, 2008 – The Michigan Business Activity Index fell 4 points in June after rising 2 points in May. It has now declined in 5 of the last 6 months. The June level of 87 was the lowest reading since July 1998. So far this year, the index has averaged 3 percent less than it did in all of 2007.

“With the Michigan-based auto companies reeling due to the overall weakness of the national economy and the increased preference for high-mileage vehicles, the downtrend in the state’s economy appears to have accelerated,” said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank.

Starting in 2004, the latest version of the Michigan Business Activity Index incorporates three new components that reflect activity in the construction and service sectors. The index discontinued using four components: two measured financial activity, one reflected compensation trends, and one was a gauge of the work week. These changes in the composition of the index were designed to make it more reflective of the evolving structure of the Michigan economy. The index also was rebenchmarked so that 2004 rather than 1996 equals 100.

Michigan Business Activity September 2008

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The Michigan Business Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the construction, manufacturing, and service sectors as well as job growth and consumer outlays. Historical data is available upon request.

Comerica Incorporated is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada, China and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $66 billion as of June 30, 2008.

To receive this index directly to your email inbox, go to www.comerica.com/econsubscribe to subscribe.

Related Links
July Real Estate Market Data for Ann Arbor, Michigan / Washtenaw County is Reported
           The Ann Arbor Board of REALTORS reports Washtenaw County housing statistics

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July Real Estate Market Data for Ann Arbor, Michigan / Washtenaw County is Reported

August 20th, 2008 Kathy Toth Posted in Ann Arbor Market Statistics, Uncategorized 2 Comments »

The Ann Arbor Board of REALTORS reports Washtenaw County housing statistics show a stable market with a slight upward trend in the number of sales. The year-to-date residential listing inventory declined by 23.53 percent when compared to last year.  The number of residential sales for July rose 2 percent compared to a year ago, while residential sales increased 3.6 percent year-to-date over last year. Pending sales increased 12.39 percent compared to last year.
 
The average sales price went from $248,715 to $225,447 year to date 07’ vs. 08’. We have 8 closing on the last day of August, so 20 closings for August, and we are on track to achieve our sales goals in moving families in the Ann Arbor market.  This is a FANTASTIC time to buy.  I feel the bottom is near.
 
Listen as national speaker Terri Murphy discusses the market and short sales with Kathy Toth.  First Time Home Buyers can take advantage of the $7500 tax credit per a previous post. Please come to the Home Buying Seminar scheduled for August 26th at 6:30 pm, in the United Bank and Trust building located at 355 S Zeeb Rd Ann Arbor, MI.  RSVP with Buyers Agent, Vicki 734-216-2172.  It will be our pleasure to give you a pre-approval and have the experts show you secrets for the stress free way to house shop.  Get a head start by looking for your house or condo with our helpful mapping.

Kathy Toth and Team
www.KathyToth.com
Keller Williams Realty

 

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National Association of Realtors* reported The Pending Home Sales Index Fell for the Midwest, Including Ann Arbor

August 8th, 2008 Kathy Toth Posted in Ann Arbor Market Statistics No Comments »

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in May, fell 4.7 percent to 84.7 for the whole country.  The index in the Midwest fell 6.0 percent to 78.6 and is 13.8 percent below May 2007.

The current Ann Arbor Real Estate market offers immediate benefits and long-term value for many buyers.   See the screaming short sale deal below:

  

Click on the image to view more information

We need stable interest rates to get us through this challenging Ann Arbor Real Estate market.  Rates are hovering at 6.5 for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.  The FHA limits for Washtenaw County are $345,000 and $297,500 for Livingston County.  We are finding that the lenders need the full 45 days to close.

We also need to hold inflation at bay. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast at 3.7 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 1.5 percent in both 2008 and 2009.  Our unemployment rate is still high.  Until that improves, we will see more of the same.  For more in depth look at the economic analysis go to see what Richard DeKaser finds.

* The National Association of Realtors is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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Looking for more Listings in the Ann Arbor Area of Michigan?
          Please visit our website for a complimentary MLS search

Additional Ann Arbor Area Listings
7880 Winterfield Drive
1320 Blue Heron Drive

 
Kathy Toth and Team
www.KathyToth.com
Keller Williams Realty

 

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The Truth Hurts: The Michigan Brief

July 31st, 2008 Kathy Toth Posted in Ann Arbor Market Statistics No Comments »

Dana Johnson, Chief Economist, Comerica Bank predicts Michigan will lag US
Real GDP for Michigan will decline another 1.5 percent in 2008

 

3rd Quarter Michigan Brief

Click here to view document in full screen

 

The housing sector is still tied to the jobs and until we see more jobs to our area, our recovery will be slow. Does anyone know of any companies thinking of locating or transferring here?

 
Kathy Toth and Team
www.KathyToth.com
Keller Williams Realty
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Although Average Home Prices Hit a Low in Washtenaw County, Market Activity is Looking Up

July 11th, 2008 Kinetic Knowledge Posted in Ann Arbor Market Statistics No Comments »

Things are definately tough in the Ann Arbor real estate market, however despite the gloomy comparative sales numbers the market seems to be picking up.  Recent reports show that the average home price in the Ann Arbor area has hit an eight year low decreasing from $267,505 to $223,082.  This is of course good news for first-time homebuyers and not such great news for those who have purchased homes in the last few years.  Yet, recent figures released by the Ann Arbor Board of Realtors suggest the local real estate market may be making a slow turn around - sales of Ann Arbor single family homes and condos were up for the first six months of 2008 as compared to 2007.  Yes, there are lots of foreclosures in those numbers (1,498 ytd as compared to 985 a year ago), but still the sales numbers in total are up 3.1% as compared to last year.  Movement in sales didn’t really occur until a boost in May and June of this year.  Buyer confidence is increasing - they are generally more willing to move forward on transactions.

Kathy Toth, whose Ann Arbor real estate sales activity has been healthy, recently gave an interview for local news hotspot mlive.com:

"The prettiest girls on the dance floor are being chosen to dance," said Kathy Toth, an agent with Keller Williams Realty. "I believe from selling 18 (homes) last month that the best deals are the things that are selling. The properties that are priced higher than they should be will remain on the market until the gap narrows - the gap being the seller’s expectations and the marketplace value."

Market fluctuations are inevitable - this market looks like it may be making a slow comeback but likely, affected investors will have to ride the wave out for awhile.  In the meantime, first-time homebuyers and new investors will continue to drive demand and help to achieve long term stability and a return to health.

Ann Arbor MLS Sales Report (June 07/June 08 Comparison)

Search all Ann Arbor Area listings from all companies and agents

Kathy Toth and Team
www.KathyToth.com
Keller Williams Realty

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